Forget finding the best school and the safest neighbourhood in which to raise your little preciouses; the most important decision after actually deciding to have kids is what to you’re going to name them…Give your son a strong name with a confident air and favourable impressions will precede him, or bestow your daughter with a trendy Downton Abbey-esque ‘Doris’ that could be cringeworthy by the time she’s pushing puberty.
Chris Franck, a US assistant research professor in statistics, has developed a tool that will ease some of the pressure of choosing a name that won’t make your kid bear you an eternal grudge. The tool predicts how a name will rise or fall in the next 25 years by examining the performance of earlier names that followed similar patterns of popularity.Parents who want to stay ahead of the curve have to consider the present popularity of a name and where in its popularity cycle it currently sits.
In the case of Adele, for example, the model found that the name is currently following a pattern very similar to 1920s favourites like Grace, Eva, and Lavinia, which have enjoyed a comeback in the recent years. Because these names are farther along in their lifecycle, they offer some insight into what the future will look like for Adele.
Based on this method, a few predictions can be made: Noah’s best days are behind him – 2013 was the most popular year the Biblical name will likely have in many years to come. Emma is a shoo-in for the top girl’s name of 2015. And keep your eyes out for Harrison and Emmett. Meanwhile, it could be curtain call for the ubiquitous Sophias and their Sophie counterparts.
This model might not have the statistical rigour of a formal experiment, but it does produce surprisingly accurate results when tested against historical data.
Check out the tool and find out how popular your baby name is here.